Posted by By Nick Smith March 27, 2026 | updated 3 hours ago OutThereColorado on Mar 30th 2026

Colorado weather a "magnitude worse" than historic Waldo, Black Forest fire seasons, official says

Colorado’s blistering, dry and breezy conditions have fire officials on edge as the state braces for a wildfire season forecast to be worse than during the Waldo Canyon fire in 2012.

Officials warn that wildfires are becoming more frequent, more destructive and larger.

“We are not looking good for fire this year,” Colorado Springs Fire Marshal Kris Cooper told the city council on Monday. “It’s got the fire department on pins and needles.”

According to Tracy LeClair, a spokesperson for The Wildland Fire Management Section of the Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control, conditions are a “magnitude worse” than those ahead of major historic wildfires in the state, such as the Waldo Canyon and Black Forest fires.

The two fires stand as the state’s second- and fourth-most destructive fires.

The division’s 2026 wildfire risk assessment report says the western U.S. is in an “exceptional drought,” which happens once every 50 years or so. Some analyses based on tree-ring data report that the southwest has been in a megadrought for over two decades, the driest the region has been in 1,200 years.

Several historic fires (Hayman, Cameron Peak and Marshall) all had drought precursors, but this year’s drought is “longer-lasting and more widespread,” according to the report.

The conditions have prompted Gov. Jared Polis to activate the state’s Drought Task Force, which was last active in 2020. That year included the Cameron Peak, East Troublesome, Pine Gulch, Grizzly Creek and Logan wildfires.

The Cameron Peak and East Troublesome fires are the largest fires by acreage in Colorado history, according to the Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control. The East Troublesome fire was the third-most destructive, destroying 366 homes.

LeClair said fuels are drying faster, making them more receptive to fire for longer.

“At this time of year, before green-up, we’re looking at those fine, dry fuels that didn’t have any snowpack to pack them down. Any spark in those coupled with a little bit of wind has the potential for a catastrophic fire,” LeClair said. “We’re obviously pretty concerned.”

A glimpse from the past

At the start of 2012, around 50% of the state was in drought conditions on the U.S. Drought Monitor, according to the Colorado Climate Center.

A dry spring on the plains, coupled with low snowpack in the mountains and record-breaking heat, led to widespread drought. By June, forest conditions were ripe for a catastrophic fire.

“You never think it’s going to happen to you,” said El Paso County Commissioner Bill Wysong.

Almost 14 years ago, Wysong and his family fled the blazing Waldo Canyon inferno.

He described a thick wall of smoke creeping down the foothills toward the Mountain Shadows neighborhood. The wind launched embers from the rapidly moving fire onto a neighbor’s home. Minutes later, it caught fire.

“It was multi-colored smoke. The color was coming from how intense the flames were,” he said.

He and his family joined dozens of others who evacuated from the area. At the height of the fire, over 30,000 people were evacuated from the Pikes Peak Region.

“I’ll always remember the look on the firefighters getting into the neighborhood. You knew it was serious because you could tell that most of them had never been in something like that. You could just see it in their eyes,” Wysong said.

Two people were killed, and 346 homes were destroyed. Luckily, Wysong’s wasn’t one of them. A year later, the Black Forest fire destroyed 509 homes and killed two more people.

Wysong, who wasn’t involved in politics before the fire, began advocating for wildfire mitigation efforts.

A concern he has today is getting more people informed about wildfire safety and prevention. He said more than a third of people living in the Mountain Shadows neighborhood today weren’t around for the blaze, so a lot of them don’t know the dangers.

Weather impacts

Lead National Weather Service Meteorologist Kathleen Torgerson said this year’s historically low snow pack is “some of the worst” Colorado has seen in her 30-year career.

The lowest snow-water equivalent totals are in the San Juans, Arkansas River and Upper Rio Grande watersheds.

With baseline conditions — low snowpack, drought and scorching heat — at critical levels, fire weather is occurring more often and earlier, according to the Colorado Fire Prevention and Control risk assessment report.

The conditions have already prompted approximately 30 red flag warnings this year through Thursday. According to Cooper, El Paso County typically gets around two a month.

National Weather Service data shows Colorado Springs has broken at least 16 daily and all-time records since Nov. 2, 2025. In Pueblo, there have been at least 19 records broken since Oct. 9.

Wildfire intensity, LeClair said, is “primarily” driven by wind, temperature and humidity levels, but steep terrain and excessive fuel loads also contribute.

She couldn’t speculate if Colorado would see more intense fires this year. But these types of fires often occur, especially up in the mountains, when lightning strikes.

Of the 40 largest wildfires in the U.S., 26 were caused by lightning, according to National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) data.

Extremely hot fires destroy the soil’s nutritional content and leave what is widely known as “burn scars.” LeClair said it takes a “long time” for a forest to recover after that, and it can also lead to post-fire flash flooding since there is no vegetation to absorb the rain.

Since snow melt is starting sooner, runoff will be “much lower,” LeClair said. Ash and debris from wildfires could also contaminate the watershed. About 80% of Colorado’s population relies on forested watersheds for municipal water supplies.

A new wildfire norm

A 2025 analysis published by Colorado State University researchers shows that bigger, hotter and faster fires are the new norm. Colorado’s five largest fires have happened within the past 23 years. Of the 10 largest fires in state history, eight took place since 2012, with three in 2020.

According to the analysis, which uses NIFC data, the annual average number of wildfires in Colorado has increased sharply, from 13 in the 1990s to nearly 50 in the 2000s to more than 70 by the 2020s.

In 2025, 77,850 wildfires burned 5,131,474 acres, according to the NIFC. The total number of fires was “significantly above” the five- and 10-year averages.

The increasing frequency has some scientists like Torgerson saying there is no longer a wildfire “season” — it’s a year-round phenomenon.

A resident northeast of the 24 fire agrees. Nestled in a secluded forested canyon along Colorado 115, 68-year-old Mark Ames told The Gazette that their neighborhood is a “tinderbox.”

“This setting comes with its own realities, and you have to accept it,” he said. “This is a beautiful place to live, and that’s the price we pay for it.”

A former fire administrator for the Bureau of Land Management, Ames said he and his wife have an evacuation kit prepared and are ready to go on a dime.

While he isn’t as anxious as others, what makes Ames worried is the wind. During an interview, Ames pointed out a breeze coming from the northeast.

A day later, the 24 fire doubled in size and expanded to the northeast. Though their neighborhood is miles away from danger, any expansion is still nerve-wracking, Ames said.

Climate change is a major contributor

While there are many factors for the growing size and frequency of wildfires, scientists say that a primary culprit is climate change.

A study published in 2016 in the scientific journal PNAS found that human-caused climate change contributed to more than half of the documented increases in dry fuels since the 1970s and “doubled” the cumulative forest fire area since 1984 across the western U.S.

The study suggested that climate change will continue to “chronically enhance the potential for western U.S. forest fire activity.”

Looking ahead

The Colorado Springs Fire Department’s updated five-year wildfire mitigation plan identifies hazardous vegetation and evaluates city growth to determine where mitigation crews should focus efforts.

Fire Department personnel who specialize in wildfire mitigation told the city council during their presentation Monday that they are responding to a public desire for increased outreach and education by hosting town hall meetings.

The fire department is also analyzing the types of vegetation that could serve as fuel for fires within the wildland-urban interface. Parts of the city contain a ton of dense, heavy vegetation, including more flammable fuels such as ponderosa pine and gambel oak, according to the presentation.

Recently, major wildfire mitigation work was done on the hillside above the Garden of the Gods Visitor Center after a fire was sparked on the hill a year ago, Gazette news partner KOAA reported.

Cooper told the city council that the celebration of the United States’ 250th anniversary this year is a “significant concern” for the fire department.

According to the fire marshal, most wildfires are caused by human activity such as fireworks, burning debris or improper disposal of cigarettes.

“This year is looking to be very dangerous for our community, and we need everyone to step up and make good choices. Heed the warnings,” Cooper said.

LeClair said the most important fire preventative step is that you should “know before you go.”

“Don’t start a campfire if there are fire restrictions. If you do have a campfire, make sure it’s 100% out before you leave … fireworks are a big one in Colorado. Don’t set them off this year,” she said.

LeClair said the Division of Fire Prevention and Control is preparing as it usually would: hiring additional seasonal staff, utilizing weather data, extending operational hours and more.

This year, however, has presented its own challenge.

LeClair said the low snowpack meant the state hasn’t been able to conduct as many prescribed burns, which reduce the amount of potential fuel for a fire. Since mountain snowmelt started early, the window for lightning-caused wildfires is wider.

If a fire sparks, LeClair said the state is ready to step in to provide ground resources, aviation assets, fire engines and other technology used in fire control at a moment’s notice.

LeClair expects a shortage of state and federal resources. She said this happens “fairly regularly” every year, but that period, which typically occurs in July and August, may come sooner and last longer.

While the near future may look grim, there is still some hope for a less dry season, according to Torgerson, the meteorologist.

“It’s possible we get some big storms come through and put off some really bad potential seasons like we’ve had in the past. There just aren’t any strong signals of these big storms,” she said.

Preliminary Weather Service information in early March showed that cities such as Colorado Springs saw “above normal” rain and snow this winter, though Torgerson said much of that precipitation is drying out fast.

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